April 7, 2009

What's your prediction?

Update: See the results of my analysis below. It's not pretty.

Original: As we wait for the results, make a guess on the candidates' order. Post your guess in the comments below. If anyone gets it exactly right, send me an email and I'll buy you a coffee.

Here's a few things to consider as we wait for results tonight ...

* In 2003, the city's last competitive mayoral race, 13,481 people voted. Becker won the race with 6,076 votes.

True.

* Who knows where turnout will be today, but if it's roughly 13,000 voters that would be about 1,200 votes per candidate if evenly distributed. Let's assume every candidate is guarantee 250 votes, just from their core group of supporters. That leaves 10,250 voters up for grabs. Taking a quarter of those votes - roughly 2,500 - probably means a candidate is advancing to the next round.

False. 9,991 people voted Tuesday for a city turnout rate of 13 percent. Nobody topped 2,400 votes and the bottom three candidates failed to get 250 votes.

* So, in short, if anyone cracks 2,800 votes they're probably moving on to the general election.

Accurate, but too high. Number should have been 2,300.

* Of course, that's assuming an even race with multiple candidates stealing votes from each other. It'll be interesting to see if a handful of candidates pulled away from the pack in the campaign.

They did. Dickert and Turner totaled 40 percent of the event. The other nine split the remaining 60 percent.

* I'm guessing we'll start seeing results between 9:30 and 10 p.m., but it could be earlier if turnout is light.

JT had the first results up at 9 p.m. Great job to the 212 Fourth St. folks for their nifty web results tonight.

* We'll post results in all area races as we get them. You can also check for yourself at the Racine County Clerk's website.

* My guess on the order after the polls close ...

OK, never got to those, but let's assume I had it perfectly right.

Good luck on your guesses!

30 comments:

  1. Go John Dickert !

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  2. Dickert will will tonight.

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  3. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  4. Alright, folks ... give us the order you think the candidates will finish in, at least the top five. Remember, the top two advance to the general election May 5.

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  5. John Dickert has my vote and the vote of many others!

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  6. Dickert
    Helding
    Plache
    Karas

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  7. Dickert by a landslide, QA, Leisa, Jaimie, Fay.

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  8. I don't know, but I LOVE the animated GIF's.

    That's a sign of a completely professional web site.

    Keep up the good work from the 1990's.

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  9. Aw, Anon 6:13: Be nice! (Yes, my sarcasm meter went off.) We're a couple of non-techies...without an IT department to code for us. And we had good times in the '90s, eh?

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  10. Dustin: Is it true that you joined Dickert's facebook friends?? That would explain the removal of my post. Pathetic sir, pathetic. Why don't you just come out and tell everyone you are supporting Dickert?? Instead of deleting negative posts about him?? Party on!!

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  11. Dickert = 4 more years of Gary Becker. They are friends you know.

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  12. John Dickert and Gary Becker haven't been friends for years.

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  13. Of the candidates running for mayor, Greg Helding would be the closest friend of Gary Becker.

    Not sure Helding's feelings towards Becker since the child porn came to the forefront, but they were definitely friends.

    Dickert had a falling out with Becker years ago.

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  14. Dickert
    Helding
    Spangenberg
    Karas
    Plache

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  15. Anon 6:36: Dustin had nothing to do with removing your post (which was signed Jim); I removed it.

    I'm tired of 2nd grade profanity.

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  16. Please God anyone anyone but Dickert

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  17. John Dickert
    Pete Karas
    Helding - big republican favorite
    Plache despite outdated big hair and looks like a train wreck.

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  18. Anyone but "Jabba the Helding"

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  19. Hey what's wrong with the big hair? The 80's were a great decade :)

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  20. Helding fanning the fire of jacato and no way of fixing the problems.
    Harding to me was a nut case wanting to take away peoples right to vote, what is she a nazi?

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  21. Dickert
    Turner
    Helding
    Karas
    Plache

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  22. Karas
    Turner
    Dickert
    Helding
    Plache

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  23. L8ManChecker4/07/2009 7:44 PM

    Dickert/Helding & a jar of bees

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  24. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  25. Jim: In answer to your question: I have no idea which candidate, if any, Dustin supports. Nor do I think it's relevant.

    And as for me, to save you from assuming anything, I live in Mount Pleasant.

    P.S. Repeating the childish profanity won't assure its publication.

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  26. Dickert
    Karas

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  27. Jim Smith (write-in candidate)

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  28. http://www.elections.racineco.com/voting/election.aspx

    Looks like Dikert and Turner.

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